Key Takeaways The U.S. economy is currently experiencing a period of slower growth, with mixed signals across key indicators, rather than a definitive recession. The debate over a U.S. recession is complex, with economic data on GDP, inflation, and employment presenting a nuanced picture that avoids the traditional "two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth" rule. Experts at institutions like J.P. Morgan and U.S. Bank have lowered the probability of a full-blown recession in the near term, but they caution that risks and headwinds remain. The question of whether the U.S. is in a recession has become a central point of discussion for economists, policymakers, and the general public. As of late 2025, the economic picture is complex, defying simple labels and demanding a deeper look at the data. A simple yes or no answer doesn't capture the full story. Instead, a nuanced analysis of key economic indicators, from Gross Dome...